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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 22

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model