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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 17

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 3-L.Hajrullahu 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.98 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP