Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

(11:05) 10-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to TB 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-J.Darden to TB 17 for 4 yards (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.12 EP
59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model