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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 7

New York Jets 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 2-Z.Wilson up the middle to TB 7 for no gain (9-J.Tryon, 31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.19 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model