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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 20 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 39 yards to NYJ 34, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.33 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model