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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 35 yards to NYJ 17, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.00 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model