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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:05) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (98-M.Ioannidis, 31-K.Curl).

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.29 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model