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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 8-A.Siposs punts 35 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model