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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 37

Washington Commanders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(:06) 3-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-12-R.Winslow.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.13 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model