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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to WAS 6, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-33-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.09 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP