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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 21

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 3-J.Slye 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-12-R.Winslow.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.39 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model