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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(:41) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 24 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.87 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP