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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 82

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 3-J.Berry punts 45 yards to GB 37, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-5-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.50 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 82, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP