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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 64-B.Brandel reported in as eligible. 14-S.Mannion pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Ham (91-P.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model