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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 30

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (No Huddle) 14-S.Mannion up the middle to GB 42 for 3 yards (98-A.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.93 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model