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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 49

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Jefferson.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.90 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model