Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to GB 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-D.Moore ran ob at GB 48 for 21 yards (5-T.Smith). PENALTY on MIN-5-T.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 48.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model