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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 3-J.Berry punts 44 yards to GB 36, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 82-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model