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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.14 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 18, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP