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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.89 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model