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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 11

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(11:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-23-K.Moore, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.28 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model