Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

(14:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to LV 22, Center-48-K.Nelson. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 38 for 16 yards (58-B.Okereke).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model