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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 2-C.Wentz left guard to LV 45 for 2 yards (97-D.Square, 29-C.Hayward).

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.09 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model