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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 28 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.81 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP