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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 41

Houston Texans 7 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP