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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 57

Houston Texans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to SF 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 22 for 9 yards (85-P.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP