Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 82

Houston Texans 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to SF 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-B.Aiyuk MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 33. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 28 for -5 yards (8-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.92 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model