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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-D.King to HOU 35 for 15 yards (53-M.Nzeocha; 44-K.Juszczyk).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.83 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model