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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 75

Houston Texans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to SF 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 32, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model