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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 80

Houston Texans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to SF 27, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 45 for 18 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.08 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP