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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 85

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to LAC 29, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 30 for 1 yard (37-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model