Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(5:10) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to LAC 35, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.97 EP
52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model