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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 51
Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7
What Actually Happened
(9:14) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LAC 48 for 3 yards (97-J.Bosa).
The Three Options
GO
+0.85 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.49 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -3.08 EP
KICK
-1.58 EP
- 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
- 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT
-0.78 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
