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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 6-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.51 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth +0.67 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP