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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 90

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 1-T.Long punts 42 yards to DEN 48, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-37-K.Hall at DEN 49.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.76 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 90, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP