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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 6-D.Hopkins 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +4.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.92 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 1, worth +0.80 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.19 EP