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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 23

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 19-B.Maher 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.94 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model