Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 18 – Carolina Panthers 10

(4:13) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to CAR 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.08 EP
77% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model