4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 12

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 3-L.Hajrullahu 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model