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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 9 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.46 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model