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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 6 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to CAR 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.47 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model