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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 10-C.Waitman punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.81 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model