4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 45-M.Burton up the middle to PIT 1 for 2 yards (34-Te.Edmunds, 39-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO +4.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.31 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.51 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model