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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 9-E.Fry 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model