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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model