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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) 9-E.Fry 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.10 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model