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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 22-N.Harris right end pushed ob at PIT 31 for -3 yards (35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model