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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.18 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model