4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 40

New Orleans Saints 3 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(3:04) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass short right intended for 1-M.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 29-Br.Jones at MIA 25. 29-Br.Jones to MIA 33 for 8 yards (14-M.Ingram).

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.54 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP