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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 20 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to NO 1, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.63 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model